16 Expert Observations That Will Have You Rethinking Your Investment Strategy (MS)


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We thought we had it all figured out before this week started.

We were wrong.

The top minds in the investment business offered some novel analysis, broke conventional wisdom, and even opened our eyes to some misperceptions.

This particular week, we learned there may be a simple explanation for the market rally, falling natural gas prices might have little to do with oversupply, analysts have no idea what is happening with treasuries, and the ECRI and Conference Board's leading indexes may be converging .

What follows are excerpts from such stories this week.  All of the important stuff you might have missed this week, right here.

The Conference Board is changing its Leading Economic Indicators, and things are looking worse than we thought

"...In a December 2011 abstract from the Conference Board: 'Following an extensive reevaluation of existing indicators included in the Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the United States, we propose a comprehensive revision of the composite index.'...

...The new LEI has not only NOT achieved a new high in the post recessionary cycle but has also recently turned down recently showing some potential for economic weakness ahead..."

Read more here >

Ironically, the ECRI leading index's call for a recession just got a little weaker

"...The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -7.5 in its latest reading, data through January 13. The latest public data point is a reduced contraction from last week's -8.6, and the underlying WLI rose from an adjusted 121.1 to 123.4 (see the third chart below).

The growth index had slipped lower over the past two weeks, but the latest data point is the highest (i.e., least negative) since early September..."

Read more here >

You CAN make money using Wall Street research

"...Two key findings: First, analyst recommendations are like dairy products in that it is best to use them quickly or not at all. Shares tend to drift in the direction of recommendation changes, but for weeks or months, not years. Second, 'sells' tend to be far more prescient than 'buys.' "

Read more here >

See the rest of the story at Business Insider

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Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/businessinsider/~3/41z5yLD8_ow/16-weekly-insights-21-2012-1

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