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David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs has bucked the bullish trend in the first few months of the year after having been bullish for a long time. Kostin vocally called for S&P 1,250 despite the persistent rally in the first 4 month of the year (see here). Kostin now says the S&P is likely to end the year down slightly at 1250 (4.2% lower than today). He broke his reasoning down based on three big trends:
1. Stagnating US economy.
2. Multiples are likely to stagnate
3. Earnings growth is slowing.
Kostin says the S&P is likely to earn $100 this year and that margins are likely to contract. I think his positioning is totally rational given my own outlook for earnings and the very low upside potential and substantial downside risks heading into the latter portion of the year (see here for more on that).
Kostin also outlined Goldman’s hedge fund monitor and the stocks most aggressively accumulated and most owned by hedge funds. Goldman’s hedge fund VIP basket recently added the following names:
Barrick Gold (ABX)
Berkshire (BRK)
Calpine (CPN)
Devon (DVN)
AIG (AIG)
Capital One (COF)
Salesforce (CRM)
Ebay (EBAY)
EMC (EMC)
Ford (F)
Hertz (HTZ)
Rock Tenn (RKT)
Equinix (EQX)
Hess (HES)
Illumina (ILMN)
WellPoint (WLP)
The names most DROPPED by hedge funds are:
IBM (IBM)
J&J (JNJ)
McDonalds (MCD)
Amazon (AMZN)
WalMart (WMT)
Exxon (XOM)
The 5 names most owned by hedge funds are:
Apple (AAPL)
Express Scripts (ESRX)
Google (GOOG)
Microsoft (MSFT)
Qualcomm (QCOM)
You can see the full Kostin interview at CNBC.
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BetterWorks, a Santa Monica, Calif.-based startup with a who's-who of Silicon Valley behind it, just announced it's shutting down at the end of the month.
The company had raised $10 million from Redpoint Ventures, where Satish Dharmaraj, the former CEO of Zimbra, led the deal. Angel investors included startup whisperer Ron Conway, Square COO Keith Rabois, Reddit CEO Yishan Wong, SoftTech VC's Jeff Clavier, and AngelList's Naval Ravikant.
You win some, you lose some. Startups fail all the time. But what's supposed to happen when you have names like this behind a company is a face-saving merger with another portfolio company, a quiet asset sale of whatever intellectual property remains, a bargain-basement acquire-hire—anything but a shut-the-doors see-ya-later.
Paige Craig, the CEO and cofounder, served in the Marine Corps and invests in or advises a long list of buzzy startups.
So what happened? We're digging into that question. But aside from the specifics, we think that this is an example of how investing based on "social proof" doesn't always lead to the best results. That's when people look to others' decisions rather than objective criteria to make tricky decisions, like which startups to back.
BetterWorks let its customers—employers—offer perks and discounts to their employees.
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Here's more evidence that enterprise tech is hot right now.
Infoblox beat estimates for its first quarterly results since going public last month. Shares are up more than 3% after close.
Infoblox posted third-quarter revenue of $43.4 million, up from $31.8 million year in the year ago quarter and beating analysts' estimates of $41.4 million. It posted non-GAAP EPS of $0.05 when analysts were looking for $0.01.
Shares surged 5% in after hours trading to $19.50, though they've crawled back down to about $18 now.
Infoblox opened at $16 for its IPO last month and investors loved it, driving the stock up to $23 that day.
Infoblox makes network automation technology that helps companies make sure that their networks keep running smoothly. It was one of two hot enterprise IPOs in April. The other was the first big data IPO, Splunk. Splunk reports its first quarter on May 31.
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