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Over the last few weeks I have written a number of articles re-examining and updating my forecast from the beginning of this year, of slow growth in the first half (possibly even one negative quarter) but no recession, followed by stronger growth in the second half.
That examination revealed that there are very real and serious problems with consumer wages, income, and savings. Similarly there are problems with corporate profit growth. On the other hand, there are a slew of data series which almost always turn negative months before a recession begins -- and so far they are all positive.The backdrop, from a year ago, is that housing, bonds, and Real M2 all turned negative towards the end of 2010 and bottomed in the first 1/3 of 2011. They have since all risen.
Since they are long leading indicators, however, the maximum negative correlation with the economy is right about now: 12-16 months later. Similarly, Prof. Hamilton has described that increases in gasoline prices feed through to maximum impact on the economy about 12 months later -- meaning we are right at the crescendo of impact from last year's increase. Coincident with those troughs, of the four coincident series signaling recessions, real income has turned slightly negative in the last few months, and industrial production has softened (although much of that can be blamed on utilities not needing to produce so much power during our non-winter winter). Real retail sales are still going strong, however, and even with March's surprise, so are payrolls.
On the positive side of the ledger is that in the past, ALL of the following data series, with rare exceptions, would have turned negative in the months previous to a recession. None have. Here's the list:housing permits - up nearly 200,000 since January 2011
ECRI's own founder, Prof. Geoffrey Moore, said that the first signal of a recovery after a recession is when the growth rate hits +1.0. It has just done so. In fact, as shown in the graph above, not once in the last 50 years has a positive and improving reading been consistent with a recession.
On the negative side of the ledger, I've also pointed out a number of series are extremely weak and are consistent with actual contraction. Those include:core durable goods - look like they are rolling overPlease follow Money Game on Twitter and Facebook.
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You are what you eat, and you eat where you live.
So the following chart from Very Small Array probably reflects much about your current lot in life.
The site plotted New York supermarket chains' locations against that area's median income.
Here are their results:

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