A Bet On Greek Default In March, Drachmas In April


Want to see a completely wrong headline? Here’s mine from seven months ago:

image

 The “deal” that I was referring to in this piece was changed dramatically from the one that is being worked on with creditors today.The haircut on bonds has changed, and the yields on the back end paper have been reduced, but I don’t think it matters. The deal that is now on the table has, in my opinion, very little chance of getting inked. I'm betting against it

Having been as wrong as I was a half-year ago, I’m very skeptical today. My bottom line on this is:

There will be no Greek deal. What is being discussed today will never get signed. As a result, there will be a payment default by Greece during March. By April, Greece will be forced out of the EU.

This will have significant consequences across a variety of markets, the most obvious would be in the EURUSD.

My last thoughts on the EURUSD were on January 7th (LINK)where I acknowledged that I had eliminated my CASH (futures) short EURUSD and replaced it with short Euro option positions. That call was a “half right". At the time of that blog the EURUSD was 1.2750 (vs. the 1.3115 close in NYC today). Switching from a cash short to an option short saved me a bit of money, and a few sleepless night as the Euro found a bid and made a halfway decent recovery against the Buck.

As of today I am back short the Euro on a cash basis (I kept the $ call options from 1/7/2012). I think some big disappointments are in front of us on the various problem countries of Europe as the implications of a busted Greek deal are realized.

I think EURUSD will be 1.2500 or lower (5% upside on the trade) by the end of March. A nice "tradable" move.

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A Multimillionaire New Yorker Was Hospitalized After A $20 Million Shopping Spree


Ed Bazinet Penthouse

With a $100 million fortune made from selling miniature ceramic houses, Ed Bazinet is one of New York's richest men. His TriBeCa apartment is worth $28 million, and he was featured Richistan, Robert Frank's 2007 book about the super-wealthy.

Two weeks ago, he suffered a manic break and purchased a whopping $20 million worth of expensive kitsch over the course of five days at the New York International Gift Fair.

Bazinet, whose apartment was described in Richistan as "a 10,000 square foot glass and chrome palace [that] looks more like a wing of the Museum of Modern Art than a home," was wandering the floor of New York's Javits Center two weeks ago for the gift fair, "the premier gift and decorative accessories market in the United States." Basically, it's booth after booth of preposterously pricey furniture, throw pillows, and wall art. A vendor we spoke to told us that Bazinet and an assistant walked up to their booth and ordered $15,000 worth of merchandise for delivery to his apartment.

But when the vendor called last Bazinet week to confirm the order and get payment information, an assistant told her that the order was cancelled. "We called to get his credit card information," the vendor said, "and his assistant told us that he had ordered $20 million worth of merchandise. She said he was having a bipolar incident, and had been hospitalized. They're cancelling all the orders. Hopefully all the other vendors called ahead to check like we did."

Katherine Roepke, a spokesman for Bazinet, confirmed the incident. "I don't know that it was $20 million, but much of that is true," she said. "He is hospitalized right now with a manic episode. He has been diagnosed with bipolar disorder. We all hope the best for him."

It's unclear how many other vendors were affected by Bazinet's spree. Representatives of the gift fair did not return phone calls.

UPDATE: Bazinet also ordered 96,000 "sachets and closet solutions"—for a total of $1.6 million—from ElizabethW. "When I asked Ed about the quantities he expressed frustration that many other vendors were asking the same question," writes co-founder Michael Lindsay in an email. "While we'll miss shipping the order, we wish him a speedy recovery."

This post originally appeared at Gawker.

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On The Dresden Bombing Anniversary, 13,000 People Formed A Human Chain To Block A Neo-Nazi March


Dresden Nazis

67 years ago today the allies devastated the German city of Dresden with a bombing campaign that took 25,000 lives — just a few months before the end of World War II.

Last night the city, the Local reports, thousands took to the streets to commemorate the bombing.

But there was also another reason so many came out. To block an annual neo-Nazi march that takes place on that day.

Between the 13th and 15th of February, four allied bombings created a huge fire in the city.

(Source)

Up to 25,000 people died, mostly civilians.

(Source)

Each year the city holds an event at local cemeteries to commemorate the dead.

(Source)

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Twitter And The Incredible Shrinking News Cycle


In the not-so-distant past, news generally tended to travel in a few well-worn paths. It was reported by a newspaper, it appeared on television at noon or 6 p.m. or it was mentioned on a drive-time radio show — and those involved usually had plenty of time to report it and produce it.

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Asia Lights Up Philip Morris? Earnings, Outlook Blazing

Asia is the only region which has consistently witnessed an increase in the volume of cigarettes consumed, with Operating income for the region surging 31% to $1 billion for the quarter.

Source: http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2012/02/13/asia-lights-up-philip-morris-earnings-outlook-blazing/

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Ready to Invest in Your Love Life? For the Best ROI, Try a Niche Dating Site

DateAh, Valentine's Day: That holiday for lovers is here once again. How nice for them, but it's making you cranky. Maybe the real reason you find yourself rolling your eyes at cooing couples and repeatedly calling Valentine's Day, "that corny Hallmark holiday" is that your footloose-and-fancy-free lifestyle is getting old. If that's the case, it might be time to make an investment in your love life.

Niche dating sites, a rapidly growing segment of the online matchmaking industry, are one way to go.

Unlike mega-sites such as Match.com, which offer up a broad swath of romance seekers with nothing in particular in common, niche sites target specific groups, interests and sensibilities -- from the boomer-friendly OurTime.com to Fitnesssingles.com for exercise junkies.

It's a sign of the times. The Internet has created a platform and consumer appetite for ever-more targeted and specialized products and services. These include fashion sites like Modcloth.com, which lets shoppers help decide what clothing it should sell, and Blanklabel.com, where consumers can co-create their own custom-designed shirts, to myriad niche news sites like Politico.com for a politics fix and Gawker.com for media gossip.

So it's no wonder that hyper-specialized dating sites would start proliferating. Niche sites accounted for 23% of the online dating market in 2008, says Eric Resnick, director of strategy for Courtland Brooks, a marketing and consultancy firm to the online dating industry, and the owner of ProfileHelper.com, which helps people write online dating profiles. And they're up to 29% now, he says, quoting figures from Experian Hit Wise, which tracks consumer behavior online.

Dating experts say niche sites can better help daters zero in on what they are looking for. "If something is highly important to someone" -- be it a personal passion or political outlook -- "these niche sites are much more efficient than the mainstream sites" at helping them find a like-minded soul, says Jill Crosby, founder and CEO of SpiritualSingles.com.

Here's a sample of the niche sites on the web as well as a few mobile apps designed to help you find love. Who knows: You might be scheduling a romantic dinner reservation for two for February 14, 2013.

MarryMeAlready.com

Commitment phobes need not subscribe: MarryMeAlready.com is geared toward folks in search of a permanent partner, Candy Tolentino, CEO of MarryMeAlready.com, tells DailyFinance.

"MarryMeAlready.com also enlists a very personal approach to matching its members by hand selecting users to feature, promoting video diaries of selected members, and even allows users the opportunity to have personal blogs and storytelling within their profiles," she says.

Cost: Free -- but for a limited time. MarryMeAlready.com will begin charging $10 to $15 a month sometime in the next few months. Anyone who signs up before its conversion to a paid site automatically receives a free one year membership.

OurTime.com

From the people who brought you Match.com comes OurTime.com. The 50-plus dating site launched in May with more than one million members, making it the largest dating community focused on the boomer-and-up crowd, the company claims. And this group is one of the fastest growing segment of the online dating world today.

According to Ourtime.com, the site has corralled 50-plus singles who share a desire to date within their age group. "This natural affinity makes it easier to find like-minded matches and strengthens the relationships formed through the site," says a press release.

Cost: $19.95 a month.

GreenSingles.com

It might not easy being green, but GreenSingles.com is all about making it easier to find a green-conscious partner.
GreenSingles.com is where singles go to find people who "really care about the earth, the environment, animal rights and healthy living," the website says. The site, which donates 5% of its profits to eco- and animal-rights friendly non-profit groups, includes a Green Market section where members can place free ads to publicize their business or service.

Cost: Three months for $24.

Alikewise.com

Does a guy who can quote Jane Austen off the top of his head warm your heart? Or would a woman eager to parse the meaning of Moby Dick over dinner make you melt? Then Alikewise.com, the dating site for book works, might be the site for you. The site aims to build a connection born from a love of books.

Cost: Free -- for now. Alikewise.com might start charging in the future, according to the web site.

DemocratSingles.com and ConservativeDates.com

If you're passionate about your political preferences, when better than an election year to search for a partner who shares your Republican or Democratic sensibilities -- just think of all the ready-made date topics you''ll have to choose from!
In the spirit of bipartisanship, DemocratSingles.com and ConservativeDates.com are run by the same company.

Cost: $19.95 per month

SpiritualSingles.com

If when asked about your faith you've found yourself uttering, "I'm spiritual, not religious," then you might want to check out SpiritualSingles.com, which bills itself as the largest spiritual/conscious dating site online.

SpiritualSingles.com sees a growing divide in the online dating industry between "booty call" or "hooking up" sites versus long-term relationship and marriage minded sites, the website says. By contrast, SpiritualSingles.com, with 46,000 U.S. members, targets a variety of spiritual seekers that include "people who are into mediation, yoga, holistic health, eastern religions, and just regular conscious, spiritual people," Jill Crosby, founder and CEO, tells DailyFinance.

Cost: $16.97 a month

Dating Apps

? Badoo.com, which reflects a growing trend toward sites like Twoo.com that are a hybrid between an online dating site and a Facebookesque social network, offers a free mobile app with new "interests" and "ice breaker" features.

The features show Badoo users the tastes of prospective dates -- be it sports, music or as granular as a specific artist -- while helping daters come up with a compelling opening line to start the online conversation.

Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 ? And as smart phones become mainstream, location-based dating apps are the new frontier of digital matchmaking. Sites like Meetmoi.com, OkCupid.com and Sonar.me offer apps that facilitate real-time dating for people on the go.

So instead of logging on to an online dating site and browsing profiles, these apps enable daters to conceivably "find people within X number of miles [or even blocks] of where they're standing at that time," Resnick says.


Cost: Mostly Free

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Source: http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/02/13/ready-to-invest-in-your-love-life-for-the-best-roi-try-a-niche/

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