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The White House announcement of the alleged Iranian terror plot to target the Saudi ambassador to the United States has renewed the American debate: How significant is the Iranian threat?
Well before Attorney General Holder announced the thwarted assassination plot, in two recent Gallup polls, Americans ranked Iran as enemy No. 1 – in front of the two countries the US is at war in; before China, which owns over $1 trillion in US treasuries; in front of Pakistan, where Osama bin Laden was found; ahead of Yemen and Somalia where some of the most recent terrorist attackers hail from; and even before unpredictable, weaponized North Korea.
The facts surrounding the recent plot remain hazy. The US has accused two individuals and the Quds Force, a wing of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, in the plot. It is not known to what extent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad or Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei may have been involved, if at all.
But let’s start with what we do know about the danger Iran poses to the United States. You may be surprised that it’s not nearly as great as most Americans – and US political leaders – believe.
George Bush included Iran in the "axis of evil" in his State of the Union address in 2002. Rick Santorum said in the Ames Republican presidential debate a little over a month ago, “anyone that suggests that Iran is not a threat to this country or is not a threat to stability in the Middle East is obviously not seeing the world very clearly.” But clarity is not prevailing in the calculations of Mr. Santorum and others. The Eurasia Group’s 2011 Top Risks Report included Iran in the "Red Herring" category.
And this latest furor over Iran may fall into that category as well.
Of course, Tehran has denied any knowledge or involvement in the alleged plan – and the US is only accusing those individuals arrested. US officials, government buildings, and US civilians were apparently not a direct target in this plot, though the planners were not concerned about civilian deaths that might have resulted.
In any case, such a plot would seemingly go against Tehran’s most basic political interests. The last thing the Iranians would want is to empower the US-Saudi relationship. Several pundits have pointed out how the alleged plot also runs counter to Iran’s past behavior. Former Middle East CIA case officer Robert Baer even said, "this is totally uncharacteristic of them.”
More broadly, any threat from Iran can be broken down into three categories – direct (military /economic), strategic (challenging broader US interests), or ideological.
Iran’s military capability never bounced back after the Iran-Iraq War, and Iran only ranks 61st internationally in military expenditures. As for being an economic threat, Iran is ranked 104th internationally in terms of GDP per capita and most certainly will not be giving the US (ranked 11th) a run for its money anytime soon.
It’s fair to say that Iran won’t launch a conventional military attack on the US or have the weight to throw any economic punches at America, but Washington’s strategic interests have fared a bit more precariously.
Iran's nuclear program is a strategic, not a direct, threat. Despite Mr. Ahmadinejad's annual performance at the UN General Assembly, the leadership in Tehran is rational and would be highly unlikely to actually deploy nuclear weapons. Doing so would ensure the obliteration of Iran, and the leadership in Tehran is eccentric, not suicidal. In September, Ahmadinejad offered to stop uranium enrichment at 20 percent enrichment (90 percent is considered weapons grade) if Iran were guaranteed fuel for a medical research reactor.
Yes, Iran has almost hit the nuclear capable mark, at which point it would possess the technical expertise and materials to move quickly to create a weapon. But if Iran manages to cross that threshold, it will be in the company of the estimated 40 states already in the nuclear capable club. Were the Iranians to gain capability and then to arm, Washington would need to prepare for some muscle flexing – not Armageddon.
The United States is also concerned that a nuclear capable Iran would be emboldened to further support Hezbollah, Hamas, and other terrorist organizations in the region. But Israel’s superior conventional military (ranked 6th internationally in military expenditures), nuclear weapons capability, and unwavering support from the United States would counterbalance any extremes on this front. Further, both Hamas and Hezbollah hold elected positions. They may get military support from Iran, but Iran doesn’t have the power to unilaterally dictate terms.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned that Iran will instigate an arms race, but the arms race in the Middle East began in the 1960s when Israel armed. Since then, over half a dozen countries in the Middle East have sought nuclear capability, but Israel is the only country that has succeeded. A nuclear Iran could very well accelerate an arms race, but it could be contained. By leveraging US patronage to the region and continuing to supply Gulf states with conventional weapons, the US could dissuade other countries from joining the race.
A second strategic concern is Iranian influence in Iraq. Iran is arming Shiite militia, which is increasingly worrisome considering the drawdown of US troops. But Iran does not want to see Iraq destabilized. Tehran benefits from having a neighboring state controlled by a Shiite majority, and while Iranian influence there is unlikely to be quelled, Iran's ambitions are regional, not global.
The direct and strategic threats have been grossly inflated. The ideological remains – but it, too, is largely hype.
In general, the idea of a theocratic religious state, specifically the Islamic Republic, doesn’t sit well with many Americans. But for most Americans Iran’s most disturbing ideology is its stance on America’s long-time ally Israel. This threat, however, is just that – a mostly ideological one, not a likely action.
Iran and Israel have never directly engaged in combat. Although Iran does sponsor Hezbollah and Hamas, Tehran is not directly calling the shots within those organizations. Israel actually provided Iran with weapons during the Iran-Iraq War. Tehran’s condemnation of Israel vis-à-vis the Palestinians is primarily a political platform for Iranian influence in the region. Iran happily accepted Israeli aid when it served Tehran’s more immediate interests.
Additionally, the Middle East at large isn’t interested in Iran’s brand of Islam. Iran, as a Persian Shiite state, is the minority in an Arab Sunni region. The Iran doctrine is well contained. But by continuing to label an intractable country as "evil," policymakers in Washington have turned a red herring into a Goliath.
Even now, amid the terror plot allegations, America needs to look at the big picture. All things considered, the mythical Iranian Goliath is still largely a fallacy.
This post originally appeared on The Christian Science Monitor.
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Electronic Arts is best known for sexy products like the Sims, Madden NFL and FIFA.
So it's a surprise to hear that EA is now working with Unilever on its latest Dove campaign. But it's part of the latest trend of video gaming companies pairing up with brands.
"As our industry becomes more complex, it also democratizes gaming," Peter Moore, the COO of EA, said during an Advertising Week panel event.
In fact, Unilever spent "between several hundred thousand and a million" dollars, Unilever Senior Brand Manager Aaron Crandall said at the panel, to integrate its Dove body products into a game that's part of EA subsidiary Pogo, which hosts more than 150 free online games. EA plans to roll out the Dove add-ins in November.
When people have an interactive gaming experience, they're more invested in it, Moore says. They're likely to come back to it, and to pay attention to what's going on within the game's context.
In fact, EA has even developed an analytics dashboard, EA Legend, which tracks specific campaigns, aggregating gender demographics, specific ads' performance, and click-through data in real time.
But since gaming is relatively new territory for advertisers, it can be tough to get consumers to pay attention -- particularly when it comes to mobile games, which can easily get lost among the hundreds of others out there, Dave Madden, EA's senior vice president for global solutions said at the panel. "If you spend $1 million on a game for a brand, you better budget another $10 million for marketing."
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There has been a bit of confusion about how the "global" iPhone 4S will work overseas.
Even we weren't sure at first. Then things got complicated when Macworld reported you'd be able to unlock the Verizon and Sprint iPhone 4S to run on any international GSM carrier, just by sticking in a new SIM card.
Then Ars Technica reported that you won't be able to unlock the Sprint model. But they quoted a Sprint rep as saying that's probably the same policy for the Verizon iPhone 4S.
Confusing!
Let's get this all straight. Here's a quick breakdown:
So what happens if Sprint and Verizon customers want to take their new iPhone 4S overseas?
Both devices come with a SIM card designed to operate the phone on each carrier's overseas partners. (For example, Verizon is partnered with Vodafone to provide customers with service outside the U.S.) That SIM card is locked to your carrier.
In Sprint's case, you have no choice but to use the SIM card they give you, as Sprint confirmed with Ars Technica. You can't unlock the Sprint iPhone 4S to run on any non-Sprint partner.
Verizon has a better deal. We spoke to a rep who told us customers in "good standing" can unlock their iPhone 4S to work on any international GSM carrier after 60 days. (By "good standing" Verizon means that you pay your bill on time.)
To recap: Verizon will let you unlock your iPhone 4S overseas if you're a good customer and pay your bills on time. Sprint keeps your iPhone 4S locked.
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