UBS In The Black For Q3 Despite Rogue

In what comes as a relief to UBS investors, the Swiss bank announced that it will report a 'modest net profit' for the third quarter of 2011 even as the bank records a $2.3 billion loss in relation to the unauthorized trading incident discovered last month in London.

Source: http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2011/10/07/ubs-in-the-black-for-q3-profit-despite-rogue/

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BOTTOM LINE: It Was Another Week Of Rebounding Data That Doesn't Look Like Recession


For the second week in a row, both the monthly and the weekly indicators rebounded. Jobs were up 56,000 in September (not counting the returned 47,000 Verizon strikers). July and August were also revised 100,000 higher. Aggregate hours also improved. The manufacturing workweek, a leading indicator, did slightly decline.

Auto sales came in strong, continuing their post-tsunami rebound. Construction spending was also up strongly. Factory orders declined slightly.

Most of the high frequency weekly indicators continued their rebound this week.

On the jobs front, adjusting +1.07% due to the 2011 tax compromise, there was a strong improvement in withholding taxes as shown in the Daily Treasury Statement. For the first 3 days of October, $33.7 B was collected vs. $30.6 a year ago. For the last 20 days, $133.4B was collected vs. $123.8 B last year, for a 10% YoY gain. This comes after several actual negative readings in September.

The BLS reported that Initial jobless claims rose 10,000 to 401,000. The four week average decreased to 414,000. This is still among the lowest numbers in the last 6 months.

The American Staffing Association Index, however, was flat at 90. This is only the second week that this series has broken out of its 87-88 range after 3 months. The index is once again below its reading from a year ago.

There was mixed news on housing. Housing prices, as measured by median asking house prices from 54 metropolitan areas at Housing Tracker showed that the asking prices declined a mere -0.9% YoY. This is yet another record smallest YoY decline in the 5 1/2 year history of this series (YoY measurements were possible beginning in April 2007). The areas with YoY% increases in price increased by two to 16. The areas with double-digit YoY% declines remained at only 2. If the current trend continues, nationwide asking prices will be YoY positive by next month sometime.

The Mortgage Bankers' Association, however, reported that seasonally adjusted purchase mortgage applications decreased 1.7% last week. On a YoY basis, purchase applications were down 12.2%. The longer term trend in purchase mortgage applications has been flat for the last 17 months. Refinancing decreased -5.2% w/w despite record low interest rates.

Rail traffic also had another good - actually excellent - week. The American Association of Railroads reported that total carloads increased 4.6% YoY, up about 10,000 carloads YoY to 563,000. This is the highest level of freight since the recession. Intermodal traffic (a proxy for imports and exports) was up 10,600 carloads, or 4.4% YoY. The remaining baseline plus cyclical traffic increased over 14,000 carloads, or +4.7% YoY. Rail traffic had been negative YoY for 6 of the 12 previous weeks, and this is the best YoY comparison in months.

Retail same store sales had a good performance as well. The ICSC reported that same store sales for the week of October 1 increased a strong 3.7% YoY, and increased 0.1% week over week. Shoppertrak did not report, although Redbook also reported a 4.1% YoY gain.

The Money supply surge appears to have ended. M1 gained 1.5% for the week. It remains up 0.4% m/m, and 20.0% YoY, so Real M1 was up 16.2%.
M2 declined gained 0.4% w/w. It remained up 0.3% m/m, and 10.1% YoY, so Real M2 was up 6.3%. The YoY increase in both M1 and M2 continue at very strong levels.

Weekly BAA commercial bond rates increased .13% to 5.31%. Yields on 10 year treasury bonds increased .10% to 1.98%. The spread between the two rates thus increased again.

Oil traded at ~$82.70 a barrel midday Friday. This is about $12 below its recession-trigger level. Gas at the pump fell $.08 more to $3.43 a gallon. Measured this way, we probably are still about $.15 above the 2008 recession trigger level. Gasoline usage was down -0.3% YoY, at 8959 M gallons vs. 8989 M a year ago. Falling gasoline prices should stimulate the economy - which will cause gasoline prices to rise again.

It's nice to have mainly positive reports for a change. The post- debt debacle stall may be lifting a bit. The rebound in auto sales should help produce a positive 3Q GDP report. With continued positive employment numbers, it is unlikely any recession began in September.

P.S. I am out of the country on vacation this coming week, so there may not be any "weekly indicators" report. In the meantime, have a nice weekend!

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Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/businessinsider/~3/V8B9TcsTqRY/bottom-line-it-was-another-week-of-rebounding-data-that-doesnt-look-like-recession-2011-10

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Here's A Rarely Seen Video Apple Employees Made For Steve Jobs On His 30th Birthday

Three Myths About Small-Business Debt

There is an old saying that if you repeat something often enough, it becomes the truth. That can be a dangerous practice in the business world, especially when it comes to handling your money. So to help you separate fact from fiction, we are listing the three biggest myths about debt that need to be debunked. Here?s our top trio of non-truthfulness.

1. You can?t build or expand a business without debt.

Nonsense, baloney and simply not true. Just ask the founders of Apple Computer, Mattel Toys or Starbucks?all Fortune 500 companies that started with next to nothing. The truth is, according to the Census Bureau?s data, 60% of all small businesses opened in a given year need less than $5,000 to start . They don?t want to begin their dream saddled with huge debt.

2. A line of credit is needed to cover cash-flow fluctuations.

Once again, not true. With good accounting and budgeting practices, any business?even those that are seasonal or unpredictable?can forecast their cash flow and be ready for down times throughout the year. Plus, having cash saved (retained earnings) allows you to become your own line of credit.

3. Large purchases require debt.

Okay, you understand not going into debt for pretty much anything. But what about those big purchases, like real estate or expensive equipment, that can costs thousands and thousands of dollars? You have to borrow, right? Absolutely not. The same theory holds true for the big-buck buys. You don?t need to borrow. Instead, make a plan, save for them and pay cash.

Dave systematically saves toward a purchase goal and puts a very specific amount as a line item in the monthly accounting, almost as if it were an expense.

In the meantime, he:

  • Rents until he can pay cash.
  • Outsources to avoid going into debt.
  • Buys used instead of new at a significantly lower cost.

The best way to grow your business is to take a lesson from The Tortoise and the Hare. Slow and steady always wins the race. You don?t need to borrow money to make it big. Instead, save for what you need and then expand. It lowers risk and minimizes mistakes. And that?s the truth! No myths allowed.

No leader should lead without these principles. It?s what your team members need to see in you, and what you want to see in them. Learn more about the EntreLeadership Live Events, and put Dave's 20 years of proven business principles to work for you.

In 20 years, Dave has grown his company to a national winning brand with more than 300 team members who have impacted millions of lives. His company has been named one of the ?Best Places to Work in Nashville? four years in a row. EntreLeadership is how he?s done it and how you can do it too. Get your copy of the new book now!

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Source: http://www.daveramsey.com/article/three-myths-about-small-business-debt/lifeandmoney_business

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Richard Branson: 'Steve Jobs Is The Entrepreneur I Most Admired'


Steve Jobs

Richard Branson and Steve Jobs both emerged from the same "hippie class" of entrepreneurs in the 1960s and '70s, which also included Ben Cohen and Jerry Greenfield of Ben & Jerry’s and the late Anita Roddick of the Body Shop. They were simultaneously engaged in disruptive innovation, though on opposite sides of the Atlantic. 

In a tribute in today's Telegraph, Branson talks about why Jobs is the entrepreneur he most admired

Steve Jobs wasn’t known for his sense of fun, but he was always at the centre of everything Apple did. Over his extraordinary career, he learnt the same lesson I have — that even when you’re successful, it is vital that you don’t solely lead your company from a distance. Walk the floor, get to know your people. 

... 

In a 1997 marketing campaign for Apple, entitled “Think Different”, Jobs said: “Here’s to the crazy ones. The misfits. The rebels. The troublemakers. The round pegs in the square holes. The ones who see things differently.” I am proud to say that, in the accompanying montage, he counted me as one of them. I think it’s an attitude that’s shared by all leaders who make a difference — and it’s one reason why, despite our vastly different styles, Steve Jobs was always the entrepreneur whom I most admired.

Branson also talks about Jobs' legacy in this video on his blog. 

Read the full Telegraph tribute here

And read more Steve Jobs: 1955 - 2011 tributes here

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Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/businessinsider/~3/0pP4d0Ns3WE/richard-branson-steve-jobs-the-entrepreneur-i-admire-most-2011-10

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Yahoo Worth $18 But Not Because Of Search Market Share

Yahoo is mired with several problems with the departure of CEO of Carol Bartz, steadily declining advertising revenues and speculation of a merger with AOL or buyout by a consortium led by the Alibaba Group. We currently have a Trefis price estimate of near $17.70 for Yahoo stock, which is about 20% above the current market price.

Source: http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2011/10/07/yahoo-worth-18-but-not-because-of-search-market-share/

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The Recession: Will It Affect Perfume Sales?

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The obvious fact that the U.S. is in a recession is going to have people cutting costs in all places. Industries that are not essential, like perfume and other beauty products, will most likely see a drop in sales. Some fragrance companies have already been through several recessions and know how to get through another one. Other, more amateur perfume companies, may take a hit at this time. Which companies are likely to survive, and which ones are at risk during this recession?

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Source: http://ezinearticles.com/6610343

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