Apple's iPhone Deal with China Mobile Has Huge Profit Potential

Apple pushes aggressively into China marketApple (AAPL) buys many of the components for its electronic devices from Chinese suppliers. Now, it plans to get more aggressive about selling those devices in the world's largest cell phone market, which could substantially boost its earnings. Beijing's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has just announced that there are now 910 million mobile phone subscribers in China. Users of 3G networks rose to almost 74 million. The number of wireless subscribers in the world's most populous nation is more than three times the number in the U.S., and its growing much more rapidly.

The Shanghai Daily reports Apple will begin to sell the iPhone this fall with China Mobile (CHL), by far the largest wireless operator in the People's Republic. Apple already has a partnership with smaller China Unicom (CHU). "A new iPhone with China Mobile's network will debut and the cooperation will be announced in September," China Mobile's Beijing-based marketing official Liu Yang said on his microblog, according to the newspaper.


China could be crucial to the growth of iPhone sales, which in turn are essential to growth in Apple earnings. Apple's stock price has stagnated below $345 since early June, down from its high water mark of $364.90 -- this despite the fact that the Wall Street forecast consensus for its share price is $450.

Some on Wall Street are concerned that iPhone sales growth rates could slow. Smartphones powered by Google's (GOOG) Android OS have passed Apple in operating system market share, according to most research firms that cover OS data. Apple sold 18,647,000 iPhones in its most recently announced quarter according to its 10-Q, an increase of 113% over the same period a year ago.

It's impossible to underestimate the value of the Chinese market to smartphone companies as that nation's legions of wireless users grow rapidly toward the 1 billion mark. If the iPhone can capture a market share in the People's Republic similar to its U.S. level, Apple's earnings will skyrocket.

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Source: http://www.dailyfinance.com/2011/06/24/apple-iphone-deal-china-mobile-huge-profit-potential/

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Citi Plays Catch-Up In China And Russia, Stock Smells Like $56

Citigroup's competitors such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, UBS and Credit Suisse already offer investment banking services through joint ventures in China. We have a $56 price estimate for Citigroup, which implies a 45% premium over its current market price.

Source: http://blogs.forbes.com/greatspeculations/2011/06/24/citi-plays-catch-up-in-china-and-russia-stock-smells-like-56/

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Can't The NYT Find an Economist Who Knows Anything Abou the Economy?


That is what readers are asking after seeing an NYT article in which several economists expressed surprise over the continuing weakness of the economy. What is surprising in this picture? What sector did they expect to give a boost to the economy that fell short?

The special cues to the ignorance of the economists interviewed is the seeming surprise at the continuing drop in house prices. Do these economists still not know about the housing bubble? It almost crashed the financial system and is the cause of the current downturn. Can you actually get paid to be an economist and still not know about the bubble?

Of course if you knew about the bubble then you are not surprised that house prices are continuing to fall. Prices have to fall by about 10 percent in real terms to get back to their long-term trend. This means that the decline in house prices over the last half year should have been entirely predictable.

The economists cited in this article also seemed surprised that consumers aren't spending more. Economists who know about the economy are the surprised that consumers are still spending as much as they are. The savings rate plummetted in the 90s and 00s as a result of the wealth created by the stock and housing bubbles. This is the result of the "wealth effect" whereby more wealth in assets leads to more consumption and less savings. This effect has been a central part of economics for more than 70 years.

With the housing bubble largely deflated, and the ephermal wealth that it created largely gone, savings rates are rising back to their historic level. If anything, the surprise is why consumption is so high, not why it is so low.

 

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

 

(Sorry about the mess of a graph -- my Microsoft program was updated and in keeping with their proud tradition, the new verision is much clumsier than then the old one.)

 

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What Specifically Does a Chapter 7 Bankruptcy Discharge Do?

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A chapter 7 bankruptcy discharge releases you from personal liability for discharged debts and stops the creditors from contacting you or threatening you, or taking any action against you in an effort to collect those debts. The US bankruptcy court estimates that almost 99% of all chapter 7 bankruptcy filers receive a discharge if it is their first time, mainly due to their low incomes and high debt ratios. According to the Bankruptcy Code 4004(c), most bankruptcies are discharged within 60 to 90 days after the petition is submitted to the court and the meeting of creditors is held.

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The press release touting Pfizer (NYSE: PFE  ) and Bristol-Myers Squibb's (NYSE: BMY  ) atrial fibrillation drug makes the whole thing sound like an afterthought: "In addition, Eliquis met the key secondary endpoints of superiority on efficacy and on ISTH (International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis) major bleeding compared to warfarin."

But those 26 words could be worth billions to Pfizer and Bristol-Myers Squibb. Yes, billions.

It's a three-horse race to replace warfarin: Eliquis, Boehringer Ingelheim's Pradaxa, and Xarelto from Bayer and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ  ) . There's data that shows Pradaxa is superior to warfarin, but it wasn't a blinded study -- patients knew which drug they were getting -- so it's not considered all that strong. Xarelto failed to beat warfarin in atrial fibrillation patients.

Pfizer and Bristol-Myers hedged their bets making non-inferiority to warfarin the primary endpoint with superiority as the secondary endpoint, which is the reason the duo didn't lead with the more important news. Proving that Eliquis is as good as warfarin -- and its nasty side effect of major bleeding -- would have been good enough to get Eliquis on the market. Topping warfarin on efficacy and safety should be enough to rocket past Pradaxa and Xarelto.

The companies plan on submitting marketing applications for Eliquis in the U.S. and Europe later this year, which would make it the third drug to make it to market. Being third to the party with ho-hum data would result in ho-hum sales for sure. With superior data -- assuming they live up to the hype of the press release -- Pfizer and Bristol-Myers can expect major sales from Eliquis.

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