Darkest before the Dawn


It looks bleak.  The European debt crisis has pushed peripheral yields, premiums and credit default swap prices to new highs.   The situation looks intractable.  And now on top of the dire situation, the political backlash in Greece is forcing a change of government.   
The brinkmanship game ends when some one blinks and one of the reasons why so many are so pessimistic is they can't see who is going to blink first.  The irresistible force meets the immovable object.    A Greek default is understood to increase the risk of  Portuguese and Irish default.  The firewall that has thus far protected Spain will come under attack.  Italy may not be that far behind.  Martin Feldstein once warned of the risks of war should EMU fail.   

The scenario of existential risk needs to be avoided.  The reason why many market observers do not see the likely grounds for a compromise is that they have unnecessarily linked two issues and they forgot a key player.  The two issues that do not need to be linked are the tranche for Greece under last year's plan and a new package for Greece, on the recognition that it cannot return to the capital markets next year as envisioned.
To examine this issue, though first requires bringing another player to the table that has been forgotten.   Many seem the line drawn between the ECB, EU, France and some other countries on one side, and Germany, Finland, Austria and a few other countries on the other side.  The former wants only voluntary agreement to roll-over current short-term Greek government bonds.  They believe that designed properly, it can avoid the appearance of a distressed exchange which the rating agencies have already warned against.  The latter are more forceful about extending maturities by a number of years.  In its present form it is hard to see how that avoids a default rating.   
The forgotten player in that line up is the IMF.  It says it cannot agree to the next Greek payment unless the country's finances are secure for the next 12 months.  This is not possible without the Europe.  What to do?  The IMF is the most likely and capable of blinking first.  It would entail accepting the intention of Europe to provide a new funding package for Greece rather than a hard commitment.  This will allow the first Greek package to proceed and allow officials several months to find a workable agreement on Greece 2.0.  
 The wild card actually becomes the Greek political situation.  The Greek government has stood out from the other troubled peripheral countries by surviving.  Between the mass demonstration/general strike and some fissures within the ruling Socialist party, is threatening to topple the government.  A new cabinet will seek to push through the new austerity measures as a vote of confidence.   This will take place in the coming days and before the IMF/EU have to write a check to Greece.    
If the austerity is approved, leaving aside the issue of implementation risk, the IMF/EU can provide the next tranche of aid.  This alone will allow a pullback from the edge of the abyss and help stabilize the global capital markets, even though thorny issues implicit in Greece 2.0 would not be addressed.  
At the same time, there is some risk that it is too late, the toothpaste is out of the tube.  Moody's decision to put three top French banks' long-term credit ratings on review for a possible downgrade in light of their exposure to Greece has aggravated the already increasing difficulty (read more costly) for European banks to secure dollar funding.   The pressure is evident and investors should monitor it as a thermometer of the pressure.  Month and quarter end pressures will not help, but if the news stream turns more positive, like the scenario outlined here, and the cost of dollar funding for European banks does not stabilize, it would be a sign that officials are too little too late.   

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RIM Co-CEOs: Here's Why We Need Each Other And Why RIM Needs Us (RIMM)


Jim Balsillie

As BlackBerry maker RIM continues to disappoint investors, calls are getting louder for one or both of its co-CEOs to step down.

On tonight's earnings call, both CEOs showed up, and about halfway through their prepared remarks, made the case for their jobs.

Specifically, as co-CEO Jim Balsillie said, they wanted to address recent concerns in the media and analyst community surrounding RIM's executive management structure.

Basically, the co-CEOs argued that they built RIM into what it is now, that their painful transition period was almost over, and that an outsider wouldn't be able to handle it.

Jim Balsillie kicked it off:

"Mike and I have been partners in this business for almost 20 years. And over that time, RIM has grown to $20 billion in annual revenue and has successfully navigated through many challenging times.

We're currently approaching the tail end of a significant transition in our business, and frankly few companies would have been able to survive. But we have.

And I believe, and I think Mike would agree, that neither of us could have taken the company this far alone, and that completing the transition and taking the company to the next level of success and growth is also something neither of us can do alone, and something that would be incredibly challenging for someone from outside the company to manage successfully at this critical time in RIM's development."

Then Mike Lazaridis took over:

"Thanks, Jim. I agree with Jim's comments, and I absolutely believe that the complementary skill sets and good working relationship between Jim and I led to the success of RIM over the past 2 decades.

I also believe that strong, consistent leadership is critical to successfully leveraging the substantial investments we've been making in BlackBerry 7, QNX, and all the products that are about to launch in fiscal 2012.

Our commitment to RIM is stronger than ever, and we know what we have to do jointly to accomplish and take RIM to the next stage of growth and success. Jim and I recognize each other's strengths, and regularly discuss and work together to determine the best way to execute on the incredible market opportunity ahead of us. We understand that weathering this transition has been difficult for our shareholders and also for our employees. We are grateful for the support you've shown us.

I truly believe we are approaching the final phase of this transition. While I can't promise that there won't be bumps in the road ahead, I can assure you that Jim and I have never been more committed to the business, and that our interests remain closely aligned with those of our shareholders."

Later in the call, they went on an unscripted mission to explain their responsibilities and how they've shifted, but this part was largely indecipherable. Basically, they work together on stuff, and Jim travels more. You're welcome to read our live notes for more.

While they make some fair points, it's up to them to execute now. If they don't completely turn RIM around -- and there is a good chance they won't be able to -- one or both of them could easily be gone within a year.

Related: RIM CEO Keeps Saying Insane Things

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How to Turn Urban Teen Girls Into Financial Prodigies

Teenage girls invest The first time you heard the title of the game show Are You Smarter Than a Fifth Grader?, you probably paused for a second. Truth is, many of us just might not be able to hold our own against those whiz kids. Well, here's another question for you. Are you a better investor than a teenage girl?

If you're comparing yourself to the teenage girls participating in the ING-Girls Inc. Investment Challenge, you might be surprised by the caliber of the competition. Four of the teams started a little over two years ago have portfolios that are up on average, roughly 30% through mid-May. The two investment teams formed a year ago are up 7.32% and 2.19% -- not half bad for newbies in this market.

How fast can you say "girl power"? Giving young, underprivileged girls the tools they need to make smart money decisions is the mission of the Investment Challenge started in 2009 by ING, (ING) in partnership with the nonprofit Girls, Inc.

With some assistance and guidance, the teams build and manage virtual $50,000 diversified portfolios in real time as part of their financial education. But the 12- to 18-year-old girls make the final investment decisions and get practical, hands-on investing experience.

The girls participating in the program mostly come from urban areas and typically are in schools with high free-lunch ratios, says Cathey. Beyond the competitive investing facet of the challenge, the teens are taught the basics of personal finance, such as saving, budgeting, credit, debt, investing and financial planning. They even open virtual bank accounts, though many have been inspired to open a real savings account. And they create short, medium and long term personal financial goals.

Virtual Investing, Real Profits

Then the teens are versed in the fundamentals of investing, such as asset allocation, diversification, portfolio turnover and valuation. To ease them into the investing world, the girls invest in mutual funds for the first six months, after which they are allowed to invest in individual securities for their three-year journey through the program. Each team member is tasked with identifying, researching and presenting at least one investment idea to the team.

All portfolios are managed and tracked using an online-trading platform that allows the participants to track their performance, as well as to see how they stack up against other challenge teams.

While the money they invest with is virtual, the payout is real. Any profits the team's portfolio makes are split evenly among the members in the form of college scholarships from ING.

Thierry Yungenge, a senior auditor for ING's corporate audit services in Holyoke, is a proud papa of sorts. "They have grown," he says with a smile in his voice.

He volunteers his time with the Holyoke, Mass., team and offers highlights of the first year. He focused on the basics first: teaching investments, financial markets and taking the mystery out of the financial lingo. "We would have the girls do practice problems and role play," says Yungenge. Then it was on to researching mutual funds. "Each girl had their own computer and each would decide what they liked and they would come to a consensus on what to buy," he adds. In phase three, they started researching companies and started trading stocks. "We gave them guidelines about how much to invest in stocks, mutual funds, bonds and cash," says Yungenge.

Three rules of investing

Teaching the benefits of a diverse portfolio was at the top of the lesson plan, because diversity mitigates risk. "They were reluctant about investing because of risks, but I told them you have to take some risk, you just need to be comfortable with the level of risk," says Yungenge.

The goal was to come up with a variety of companies. "I explained to them that if they bought Coca-Cola (COKE) and Pepsi, (PEP) because they are so similar, if one is down in the market, the other could very well be too .... They understand now that you can't put all your eggs in one basket," he says.

Secondly, "We taught them to begin their research with companies they know. You should invest in what you know," he says. The girls researched Viacom (VIA) -- owner of teen favorite MTV -- Johnson & Johnson, (JNJ) -- because they like its products -- as well as Coca-Cola, Pepsi and McDonald's, (MCD) says Yungenge.

The girls were introduced to a number of research tools like Google Finance where they could look at a stock's performance over time. They were also told to watch the news for information about the companies they were considering. When researching mutual funds, examined Lipper rankings and looked at funds' tax efficiency and fees.

The third key lesson was patience. "Before anything was bought, the girls would spend two weeks following the company," says Yungenge -- training for avoiding snap decisions to buy or sell.

Perhaps the biggest challenge for Yungenge was simplifying complex terms that baffle some adults. He has new appreciation for analogies, as they worked wonders it making concepts plain for the girls. He sees the results. "They have learned a lot. Their confidence has transformed them. One girl shared a story about when she was in history class and they were talking about the Depression, she was able to talk about the stock market, she felt very good about that," he says.

Sowing the seeds for financial success

"The earlier you can teach someone about money, the sooner it can take hold and they'll be better prepared to manage their money later in life," says Laurin Cathey, head of multicultural affairs at ING.

Most children learn money lessons from their parents, whether their parents are capable teachers or not. Financial education is still not a mainstay in curriculums across the country, and after ING saw the results of its 2008 survey on black women and money -- conducted in partnership with Essence magazine -- the bank was moved to act, says Cathey. "We felt an obligation to use our expertise," he adds.

The survey looked at the spending habits of African-American women, and found that in general, they can be generous in helping others out financially, and also strong inclination toward consumption -- some of it conspicuous. With those two habits, it's not surprising that many said they lacked savings and investments for the long-term. The key though, was that they said they were interested in learning more about finances.

The hope is that the program will help establish new patterns of behavior among the participants, and a side benefit already surfacing is the secondary wave of learning. "We see not only how the girls are changing, but that they are influencing others, their family, their friends. They are explaining to more senior family members that they don't need a lot of money to get started investing," says Cathey. "They tell us they look at money differently, that they don't spend as much at the corner store," he adds.

Financial literacy changes a community. "Those that aren't financially literate don't have the quality of life that those who do have," says Cathey.

In addition to money lessons, the girls get exposure to successful women in the corporate and nonprofit sectors. "They get role models and a support system to pursue opportunities," says Cathey. "Some of these girls didn't see themselves going to college. It wasn't a real possibility until now."

Girls Rule

At 15, Katie Fitzgerald is a changed woman. "I learned what those fancy words mean, I'm not intimidated any more," she says proudly.

Though the Holyoke teen was already a saver, since she entered the program, she has opened a bank account and gotten serious. "When I go to the mall or go out to lunch, I have a budget. When I babysit, I keep some and I save some. I saved up $700 to buy a laptop," she says.

Along with finance fundamentals, she's learned patience. "I don't like watching the market going down and losing money. When it goes up, then I'm happy. But I learned the stock market, if it goes down, it doesn't necessarily stay down, it will come back up, eventually."

Jana Hamilton, 16, of Atlanta says her first year with the program has been eye-opening. "I wasn't aware there were so many places to save, like savings and checking accounts, and so many ways to save, stocks, bonds, mutual funds," she says.

She knows now and she's not leaving the savings and budgeting lessons behind in the classroom, but practicing them. "When I go shopping for clothes I have to ask myself, do I really need that?"

With the success of the teams in six cities, ING plans to expand the program to 10 cities by 2013, says Cathey. In addition, ING is working with Girls Inc. to offer elements of the program online so that it can grow exponentially. "We invested in a real-time stock trading platform, a robust tool that does tracking and monitoring. We are looking to see if we can make it available to other Girls Inc. in cities where we don't have manpower in 2012 and 2013," he adds.

"This is an opportunity for us to make a difference, to make our mark," says Cathey, who is excited by what he sees.

You're watching 15 April 2011 Girls Inc. and Girl Scouts of America rang the NYSE Closing Bell. See the Web's top videos on AOL Video


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Source: http://www.dailyfinance.com/2011/06/16/how-to-turn-urban-teen-girls-into-financial-prodigies/

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How to Turn Urban Teen Girls Into Financial Prodigies

Teenage girls invest The first time you heard the title of the game show Are You Smarter Than a Fifth Grader?, you probably paused for a second. Truth is, many of us just might not be able to hold our own against those whiz kids. Well, here's another question for you. Are you a better investor than a teenage girl?

If you're comparing yourself to the teenage girls participating in the ING-Girls Inc. Investment Challenge, you might be surprised by the caliber of the competition. Four of the teams started a little over two years ago have portfolios that are up on average, roughly 30% through mid-May. The two investment teams formed a year ago are up 7.32% and 2.19% -- not half bad for newbies in this market.

How fast can you say "girl power"? Giving young, underprivileged girls the tools they need to make smart money decisions is the mission of the Investment Challenge started in 2009 by ING, (ING) in partnership with the nonprofit Girls, Inc.

With some assistance and guidance, the teams build and manage virtual $50,000 diversified portfolios in real time as part of their financial education. But the 12- to 18-year-old girls make the final investment decisions and get practical, hands-on investing experience.

The girls participating in the program mostly come from urban areas and typically are in schools with high free-lunch ratios, says Cathey. Beyond the competitive investing facet of the challenge, the teens are taught the basics of personal finance, such as saving, budgeting, credit, debt, investing and financial planning. They even open virtual bank accounts, though many have been inspired to open a real savings account. And they create short, medium and long term personal financial goals.

Virtual Investing, Real Profits

Then the teens are versed in the fundamentals of investing, such as asset allocation, diversification, portfolio turnover and valuation. To ease them into the investing world, the girls invest in mutual funds for the first six months, after which they are allowed to invest in individual securities for their three-year journey through the program. Each team member is tasked with identifying, researching and presenting at least one investment idea to the team.

All portfolios are managed and tracked using an online-trading platform that allows the participants to track their performance, as well as to see how they stack up against other challenge teams.

While the money they invest with is virtual, the payout is real. Any profits the team's portfolio makes are split evenly among the members in the form of college scholarships from ING.

Thierry Yungenge, a senior auditor for ING's corporate audit services in Holyoke, is a proud papa of sorts. "They have grown," he says with a smile in his voice.

He volunteers his time with the Holyoke, Mass., team and offers highlights of the first year. He focused on the basics first: teaching investments, financial markets and taking the mystery out of the financial lingo. "We would have the girls do practice problems and role play," says Yungenge. Then it was on to researching mutual funds. "Each girl had their own computer and each would decide what they liked and they would come to a consensus on what to buy," he adds. In phase three, they started researching companies and started trading stocks. "We gave them guidelines about how much to invest in stocks, mutual funds, bonds and cash," says Yungenge.

Three rules of investing

Teaching the benefits of a diverse portfolio was at the top of the lesson plan, because diversity mitigates risk. "They were reluctant about investing because of risks, but I told them you have to take some risk, you just need to be comfortable with the level of risk," says Yungenge.

The goal was to come up with a variety of companies. "I explained to them that if they bought Coca-Cola (COKE) and Pepsi, (PEP) because they are so similar, if one is down in the market, the other could very well be too .... They understand now that you can't put all your eggs in one basket," he says.

Secondly, "We taught them to begin their research with companies they know. You should invest in what you know," he says. The girls researched Viacom (VIA) -- owner of teen favorite MTV -- Johnson & Johnson, (JNJ) -- because they like its products -- as well as Coca-Cola, Pepsi and McDonald's, (MCD) says Yungenge.

The girls were introduced to a number of research tools like Google Finance where they could look at a stock's performance over time. They were also told to watch the news for information about the companies they were considering. When researching mutual funds, examined Lipper rankings and looked at funds' tax efficiency and fees.

The third key lesson was patience. "Before anything was bought, the girls would spend two weeks following the company," says Yungenge -- training for avoiding snap decisions to buy or sell.

Perhaps the biggest challenge for Yungenge was simplifying complex terms that baffle some adults. He has new appreciation for analogies, as they worked wonders it making concepts plain for the girls. He sees the results. "They have learned a lot. Their confidence has transformed them. One girl shared a story about when she was in history class and they were talking about the Depression, she was able to talk about the stock market, she felt very good about that," he says.

Sowing the seeds for financial success

"The earlier you can teach someone about money, the sooner it can take hold and they'll be better prepared to manage their money later in life," says Laurin Cathey, head of multicultural affairs at ING.

Most children learn money lessons from their parents, whether their parents are capable teachers or not. Financial education is still not a mainstay in curriculums across the country, and after ING saw the results of its 2008 survey on black women and money -- conducted in partnership with Essence magazine -- the bank was moved to act, says Cathey. "We felt an obligation to use our expertise," he adds.

The survey looked at the spending habits of African-American women, and found that in general, they can be generous in helping others out financially, and also strong inclination toward consumption -- some of it conspicuous. With those two habits, it's not surprising that many said they lacked savings and investments for the long-term. The key though, was that they said they were interested in learning more about finances.

The hope is that the program will help establish new patterns of behavior among the participants, and a side benefit already surfacing is the secondary wave of learning. "We see not only how the girls are changing, but that they are influencing others, their family, their friends. They are explaining to more senior family members that they don't need a lot of money to get started investing," says Cathey. "They tell us they look at money differently, that they don't spend as much at the corner store," he adds.

Financial literacy changes a community. "Those that aren't financially literate don't have the quality of life that those who do have," says Cathey.

In addition to money lessons, the girls get exposure to successful women in the corporate and nonprofit sectors. "They get role models and a support system to pursue opportunities," says Cathey. "Some of these girls didn't see themselves going to college. It wasn't a real possibility until now."

Girls Rule

At 15, Katie Fitzgerald is a changed woman. "I learned what those fancy words mean, I'm not intimidated any more," she says proudly.

Though the Holyoke teen was already a saver, since she entered the program, she has opened a bank account and gotten serious. "When I go to the mall or go out to lunch, I have a budget. When I babysit, I keep some and I save some. I saved up $700 to buy a laptop," she says.

Along with finance fundamentals, she's learned patience. "I don't like watching the market going down and losing money. When it goes up, then I'm happy. But I learned the stock market, if it goes down, it doesn't necessarily stay down, it will come back up, eventually."

Jana Hamilton, 16, of Atlanta says her first year with the program has been eye-opening. "I wasn't aware there were so many places to save, like savings and checking accounts, and so many ways to save, stocks, bonds, mutual funds," she says.

She knows now and she's not leaving the savings and budgeting lessons behind in the classroom, but practicing them. "When I go shopping for clothes I have to ask myself, do I really need that?"

With the success of the teams in six cities, ING plans to expand the program to 10 cities by 2013, says Cathey. In addition, ING is working with Girls Inc. to offer elements of the program online so that it can grow exponentially. "We invested in a real-time stock trading platform, a robust tool that does tracking and monitoring. We are looking to see if we can make it available to other Girls Inc. in cities where we don't have manpower in 2012 and 2013," he adds.

"This is an opportunity for us to make a difference, to make our mark," says Cathey, who is excited by what he sees.

You're watching 15 April 2011 Girls Inc. and Girl Scouts of America rang the NYSE Closing Bell. See the Web's top videos on AOL Video


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Source: http://www.dailyfinance.com/2011/06/16/how-to-turn-urban-teen-girls-into-financial-prodigies/

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Don't Get Too Worked Up Over National Presto Industries' Latest Numbers

Here at The Motley Fool, I've long cautioned investors to keep a close eye on inventory levels. It's a part of my standard diligence when searching for the market's best stocks. I think a quarterly checkup can help you spot potential problems. For many companies, products that sit on the shelves too long can become big trouble. Stale inventory may be sold for lower prices, hurting profitability. In extreme cases, it may be written off completely and sent to the shredder.

Basic guidelines
In this series, I examine inventory using a simple rule of thumb: Inventory increases ought to roughly parallel revenue increases. If inventory bloats more quickly than sales grow, this might be a sign that expected sales haven't materialized.

Is the current inventory situation at National Presto Industries (NYSE: NPK  ) , out of line? To figure that out, start by comparing the company's figures to those from peers and competitors:

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's. Data is current as of latest fully reported quarter. TTM = trailing 12 months.

How is National Presto Industries doing by this quick checkup? At first glance, not so great. Trailing-12-month revenue increased 1%, and inventory increased 11.2%. Over the sequential quarterly period, the trend looks worrisome. Revenue dropped 23.3%, and inventory grew 0.4%.

Advanced inventory
I don't stop my checkup there, because the type of inventory can matter even more than the overall quantity. There's even one type of inventory bulge we sometimes like to see. You can check for it by examining the quarterly filings to evaluate the different kinds of inventory: raw materials, work-in-progress inventory, and finished goods.

A company ramping up for increased demand may increase raw materials and work-in-progress inventory at a faster rate when it expects robust future growth. As such, we might consider oversized growth in those categories to offer a clue to a brighter future, and a clue that most other investors will miss. We call it "positive inventory divergence."

On the other hand, if we see a big increase in finished goods, that often means product isn't moving as well as expected, and it's time to hunker down with the filings and conference calls to find out why.

What's going on with the inventory at National Presto Industries? I chart the details below for both quarterly and 12-month periods.

anImage

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's. Data is current as of latest fully reported quarter. Dollar amounts in millions. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

anImage

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's. Data is current as of latest fully reported quarter. Dollar amounts in millions. FQ = fiscal quarter.

Let's dig into the inventory specifics. On a trailing-12-month, basis, finished goods inventory was the fastest-growing segment, up 34%. That can be a warning sign, so investors should check in with National Presto Industries' filings to make sure there's a good reason for packing the storeroom like this. On a sequential-quarter basis, raw materials inventory was the fastest-growing segment, up 39.6%.

Foolish bottom line
When you're doing your research, remember that aggregate numbers such as inventory balances often mask situations that are more complex than they appear. Even the detailed numbers don't give us the final word. When in doubt, listen to the conference call, or contact investor relations. What at first looks like a problem may actually signal a stock that will provide the market's best returns. And what might look hunky-dory at first glance could actually be warning to you to cut your losses before the rest of the Street wises up.

I run these quick inventory checks every quarter. To stay on top of the inventory story at your favorite companies, just use the handy links below to add companies to your free watchlist, and we'll deliver our latest coverage right to your inbox.

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Source: http://feeds.fool.com/~r/usmf/foolwatch/~3/hEJ7IyTEkTY/dont-get-too-worked-up-over-national-presto-indust.aspx

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Cliffs Comes Up With Post-Twister Forecast For Acquired Operations

Cliffs is the largest producer of iron ore pellets in North America and a major supplier of direct-shipping lump and fine iron ore out of Australia. It is also a significant producer of metallurgical coal. We maintain a $103 price estimate for Cliffs Natural Resources stock, a notable premium to market price.

Source: http://blogs.forbes.com/greatspeculations/2011/06/16/cliffs-comes-up-with-post-twister-forecast-for-acquired-operations/

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Elevating Credit Score And Exactly why Its So Crucial

Credit score scale plays a essential role in the monetary aspects of each and every individual, organization as well as a country. Raising credit score determines regardless of whether an individual is capable of credit worthiness. This also established a person’s credit reputation. Credit history and records of a person is crucial to any monetary [...]

Source: http://www.legaldebthelponline.com/2011/06/14/elevating-credit-score-and-exactly-why-its-so-crucial/

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