President Romney? Gamblers Say Don't Bet on It

--> Mitt RomneyWith just a few hours before Election Day, America's polling industry has gone into overdrive. A handful of colleges, a slew of media outlets, and a mass of polling companies have made a business out of asking Americans who they plan to vote for, while a crop of celebrity statisticians (who ever thought those two words would go together?) have made a cottage industry out of analyzing the survey results.

While the election cycle has made virtual rock stars out of analysts like Nate Silver and Real Clear Politics, even these most famous mathmagicians and pollsters are missing one key element in their predictions: money. After all, while poll respondents are often happy to give their opinions, they rarely have anything at risk -- and certainly don't seem especially willing to put their money where their mouths are. Thankfully, a few overseas betting sites have taken polling to the next level: they're allowing customers to place wagers on outcome of tomorrow's election.

At Ladbrokes, one of the top British betting sites, a £5 wager on Obama will yield £1 if he wins. In other words, users of the site strongly believe in Obama's chances, to the extent that they aren't willing to offer attractive odds. Romney, on the other hand, offers a much bigger payoff: a £2 wager will pay out £7 if he wins.

Across British sites, these odds are fairly consistent. Betfair has 2/7 odds on Obama (a £7 wager pays £2), and 100/30 odds on Romney, while William Hill is offering 1/5 for Obama and 7/2 for Romney. And Intrade, a Dublin-based prediction market that allows users to buy "shares" in a potential winner, is predicting a 67% chance that Obama will be the next president.

Admittedly, there are a few problems with relying on British bookies to determine the odds in an American election. To begin with, Obama has a much higher profile overseas -- a factor that is sure to skew bettors. Beyond that, Romney's stunning gaffes during the London Olympics are likely to have dimmed his star among the British. Finally, it is possible to manipulate prediction markets -- in the short term -- by placing huge bets on a particular candidate.

In the long run, however, prediction markets tend to be quite accurate at determining the probability of a certain outcome. Because money is involved, bettors are careful about their choices, and are likely to research the possibilities as much as possible. And, while it is possible to skew the odds for a brief period, a robust market with a lot of bettors tends to correct itself fairly quickly.

With only a few hours left until the polls close, we won't have to wait long to find out if Ladbrokes, Intrade and the other betting markets are accurate. And the information may prove really useful -- they're already handicapping the 2016 Presidential election. Hillary Clinton versus Paul Ryan, anyone?

Bruce Watson is a senior features writer for DailyFinance. You can reach him by e-mail at bruce.watson@teamaol.com, or follow him on Twitter at @bruce1971.


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Source: http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/11/05/president-romney-gamblers-say-dont-bet-on-it/

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The Most Ridiculous Myths About Barack Obama

obama golf

I've spent the last four years covering the Obama presidency and tweeting about it on a daily basis from the White House briefing room.

And the Twitter messages I get — thousands of them — tell me that there are folks who will believe absolutely anything regardless of whether it is a distorted or a bald-faced lie, and regardless of whether factual information is staring them in the face. 

I neither support nor oppose President Obama. I disagree with about half of what he has tried to do. But I do support trying to determine what is accurate and true and what is not.

With that in mind, I deconstruct, based on four years worth of observation, the top five bogus myths about Obama:

1. Obama has played more golf than any president in history
This isn't even close to being true. Now, there's no question that he plays on a regular basis: 104 rounds from January 2009 through Aug. 4 of this year, the last time he played, according to Mark Knoller, the longtime White House correspondent for CBS Radio.

That puts him about in the middle when compared with other duffers-in-chief. It's less than Bill Clinton, and a lot less than Dwight Eisenhower, who played more than 800 rounds over eight years — four times as often as Obama plays.

And why is it an outrage if the president, who heads one of three branches of government, golfs 104 times in three-and-a-half-years, but the head of another branch of government, the Speaker of the House, plays four times as much? You heard correctly: John Boehner once told Golf Digest that he plays upwards of 100 rounds a year. Seems like a double standard, no?

2. Obama has taken more vacation time than any president in history
This isn't even remotely accurate either, but first, some context from Nancy Reagan: "Presidents don't get vacations — they just get a change of scenery. The job goes with you." The responsibilities, the pressure, the officer with the "nuclear football" — it's all with a commander-in-chief at all times. No exceptions.

But how much time away from the White House has President Obama spent, and how does this compare with predecessors?

POTUS Tracker, compiled by The Washington Postshows that from January 2009 to October 31, 2012, Obama spent all or part of 72 vacation days in a variety of places, mostly Hawaii in the winter and Martha's Vineyard in the summer. That's about 10 weeks away in three-and-a-half years, hardly extravagant. Through May 18, according to data from CBS's Knoller, he also visited Camp David 22 times, spending all of part of 54 days there.

What about his predecessors?

· In 1798, President John Adams left the capital for seven months to care for his ailing wife Abigail; his enemies said he practically relinquished his office.

· Thomas Jefferson and James Madison routinely went away for three- and four-month stretches. 

· Abraham Lincoln, during the Civil War, was blasted for spending about 25 percent of his time away from the White House.

· Dwight Eisenhower took long summer breaks in Denver and spent almost every single weekend at Camp David.

· John F. Kennedy rarely spent a weekend in the White House, staying at family homes in Palm Beach, Hyannis Port, and the Virginia countryside.

· Lyndon Johnson spent 484 days in five and a half years at his Texas ranch.

· Ronald Reagan was away for 436 days, usually at Rancho del Cielo (his mountaintop retreat in California) or Camp David.

· Bill Clinton, who didn't own a vacation home, loved to party with his elite friends in Martha's Vineyard and the Hamptons.    

· George W. Bush spent 32 months at his ranch (490 days) or Camp David (487 days) — an average of four months away every year.

Time off doesn't mean goofing off. President Bush, for example, met with a variety of foreign leaders at his ranch. President Obama held a G-8 summit at Camp David. Just like you might check your email while sitting on the beach (you fool, you), presidents never really unplug. But if anyone deserves a vacation, it is the person who serves in the world's most stressful and demanding job.

3. Obama shows his true colors by not going to Arlington National Cemetery
Sadly, the days we set aside to honor those who have worn the uniform of our country — and made the ultimate sacrifice — have become highly politicized. There is an expectation that presidents should go to Arlington National Cemetery on Memorial and Veterans Day. Certainly, any commander-in-chief should mark these sacred days in such fashion. But paying tribute to those whose final resting place is in any other of America's other 130 national cemeteries is no less honorable.

That being said, the tradition of going to Arlington itself on Memorial Day is fairly new. Most presidents never, or rarely, went. Let's look at the past six decades:

· Eisenhower: Twice in eight years

· Kennedy: Never in three years

· Johnson: Once in five years

· Nixon: Never in six years

· Ford: Twice in two years

· Carter: Never in four years

· Reagan: Three times in eight years

· Bush Sr.: Never in four years

· Clinton: Eight times in eight years

· Bush Jr.: Seven times in eight years

· Obama: Three times in four years

Bush Jr. and Obama really have perfect records as far as I'm concerned. The one year Bush wasn't at Arlington he was at Normandy, honoring the heroes of D-Day. The one year Obama wasn't at Arlington he was at a National Cemetery in Illinois, where the heroes who rest in peace are no less deserving of our respect than those who rest in Arlington.

4. Obama has never visited Israel as president, which shows he doesn't give a damn about it
It's true that Barack Obama, as president, hasn't visited the Jewish state. Not once in four years. He's in good company:

· Nixon waited five-and-a half years to visit

· Ford never went

· Carter went once in four years

· Reagan never went in eight years

· Bush Sr. never went

· Clinton went six times in eight years

· Bush Jr. waited seven years to visit

That Obama hasn't gone, therefore, means two things: 1) Jack and 2) Squat. It's true he and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu don't like each other personally, but the more important issue is whether he's committed to Israeli security. Hardline Defense Minister Ehud Barak, a hawk who, with Netanyahu, has been the driving force behind a possible attack in Iran, says:

I can see long years, administrations of both sides of the political aisle deeply supporting the state of Israeli and I believe that reflects a profound feeling among the American people. But I should tell you honestly that this administration under President Obama is doing in regard to our security more than anything that I can remember in the past.

Then there's Dennis Ross, who has spent a whole lot of time with five Republican and Democratic presidents, not to mention their Israeli counterparts.

I've worked with every Israeli prime minister in the past 30 years, and there have always been ups and downs. But you don't really see the kind of language we're hearing now. It must be the polarization. I can't explain it otherwise.

If you think you know better, Mr. Armchair Expert, than Israel's own hardline defense minister and the guy who has worked with Republican presidents, Democratic presidents, and every Israeli prime minister over the past three decades, I'm all ears.

5. Taxes under Obama are at an all-time high 
If you buy this one, congratulations: You've failed not just history, but economics as well. Between the combined burden of federal, state, and local income taxes, Americans are parting with the smallest share of their income since 1958. The Bureau of Economic Analysis says we pay 23.6 percent of what we make, down from an average of about 27 percent during the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s.

What makes you think that any president is responsible for what state and local governments take from you anyway? Never mind that Congress controls the federal purse strings, and never mind that cuts in income tax rates and payroll tax rates have been in effect for several years now. Of course, this could all change come January, unless hyper-divided Washington can somehow find a way to cooperate and avoid taking the economy over the fiscal cliff. But for now, the notion that taxes are gobbling up more of our hard earned income than ever is, to use a word we've heard often during this long and often dishonest campaign, malarkey.

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Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/businessinsider/~3/uWVqPHMpCrc/deconstructing-myths-about-obama-2012-11

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NY Attorney General Tells Retailers They Can?t Just Go Around Inflating Prices Post-Sandy

As hundreds of thousands of East Coast residents pull together to offer up goods and services to those devastated by Hurricane Sandy, there are still plenty of businesses and individuals who are willing to make a buck off someone else’s misfortune. New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman says his office has launched an investigation into claims of price gouging to … [More]

Source: http://consumerist.com/2012/11/05/ny-attorney-general-tells-retailers-they-cant-just-go-around-inflating-prices-post-sandy/

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This New Poll Has Devastated Mitt Romney's Campaign

mitt romney

Of all the swing state polls that have come out in the final days of the presidential race, none have been as devastating to Mitt Romney's campaign as the final Des Moines Register poll, which shows the Republican candidate trailing Obama by five points in Iowa, a critical swing state. 

Republican strategists say that the Romney campaign was dejected by the poll, a well-respected public opinion survey from Iowa's largest daily newspaper.

The poll found Obama leading Romney 47% to 42%, an advantage that appears to be driven in part by an improved economic outlook among Iowa voters and persistent negative perceptions of Romney (Obama beats Romney by 10 points on the question of trustworthiness, by 10 points on honesty, and by 15 points on the question of which candidate is more caring.)

The results of the Register poll stand in stark contrast to the "momentum" narrative that the Romney campaign has been spinning since the first presidential debate. Over the last month, Iowa polls have shown Romney gaining on Obama in the crucial swing state, bolstered by strong support from white male voters. With the Register's surprising endorsement of Romney last month, an Iowa win appeared to be within the Republican candidate's grasp.

But the latest poll results show that, in Iowa at least, Romney's post-debate surge has dissipated, if it ever existed there in the first place. Without Iowa, Romney's chances at breaking the Obama campaign's Midwestern "firewall" are greatly diminished.

Now here's how Mitt Romney could actually win the election > 

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Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/businessinsider/~3/szFt-aaxPhk/romney-obama-iowa-des-moines-register-poll-2012-11

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Sorry, But Reading Charts Won't Make You Financially Enlightened

obama chart

I’ve always looked at websites and apps that purport to solve your financial woes and set you on the path to fiscal happiness with skepticism.

It’s not that I think they’re not useful; but I think that making charts and graphs and having the ability to Tweet your receipts is, while fun, not essential to financial health, and sometimes even a distraction.

I think of this association as breast self-exams are to breast cancer: useful, even recommended, but not going to save you from getting breast cancer in the first place. At best, they’re detectors, diagnostics.

That theme keeps repeating itself in my world of financial media, so I’ve been thinking deeply about it.

In a post on my financial relationship with my husband, for instance, I mentioned tracking my expenses. When he was home on leave at the end of October, he told me this was great. “Let’s sit down with your list of expenses,” he said, “and we’ll go through it. I’ll put a line through the ones I disagree with. Then we can discuss them.”

I balked. How was this going to help matters? A retrospective give-and-take over my spending would, at worst, bring up arguments over what I’d spent; at best, our discussion would give me a sense of pride over what I’d spent, hardly getting at any underlying financial issues.

Seeing all my spending through someone else’s eyes — even seeing it as percentages or pie charts — was not going to fix my financial problems.

My financial problem is that I often budget carefully, and I generally do spend sensibly, but when it comes down to a decision between buying something and not buying something, I’m making that decision only looking at the upside (whether the purchase is a wise one and frugal to boot), not at the downside (whether I’ll have money for my other obligations after I spend on this one).

I leap first and do the math later.

This is not the best way to approach financial life, at least, not in my currently limited financial situation. I’m working on it! But no matter how often I fill out my expense-tracking spreadsheet, no matter how many cool “sumif” functions I run (I could tell you, for instance, exactly how much money I spent on coffee in coffee shops as opposed to the money I spent for coffee beans and brewing equipment; how much I spent on meals and how much I spent on snacks and treats; how much I spent on babysitting for social functions and babysitting for writing), I am not getting at this core issue.

I can only get at my real problem — not through helpful lessons on budgeting tips or advanced iPhone apps — by real, hard, careful work on self-improvement.

I can only get at my real problem through psychology. Through practice.

I think the true path to financial enlightenment is something like those 10,000 prostrations I read about in someone’s memoir. I forget the details, but do the prostrations, day in and day out until you get to a big number, and you move to the next “level” of spiritual enlightenment. Doing the right thing over, and over, and over again is the only way I’m going to put my financial house in order. (Or a huge windfall might be nice!) (No! That’s not useful thinking!)

Over the past few weeks, right after having this financial epiphany and resolving to spend a bit more sensibly than I had been for the past year, I had less cash than I had planned due to some surprise bills. I found myself with about 10 days between the end of my cash and the next planned payday. What I wanted to do was to juggle, to promise to pay and to borrow from one account so I could buy (for instance) Irish Breakfast tea, and easy snacks for my kids’ lunches, and a book for my book group, and another that I discovered my name was in (I’m a “Notable” in Best American Essays!). Not to mention my usual small luxuries, like cappuccinos, salty-herby bagels and roasted vegetable cream cheese when I go to meet friends for work sessions in cafes.

But I had just had this talk with myself: I need to practice financial fidelity. So I did my best.

It’s not like I don’t know how to do this; I just don’t want to do this. I have a stocked pantry and plenty of resources. I did the frugal thing.

Instead of buying a new box of tea, I made do with the seemingly endless variety of bits of loose tea I’ve purchased over the last few years. Instead of buying easy snacks for my kids’ lunches, I got creative with the freezer and the pantry, making them meatballs, and biscuits, and healthy oatmeal cookies, and lots and lots of carrot sticks (luckily, they love carrot sticks). Instead of buying that book, I decided to get it at the library (I know! You keep telling me!). I made a stack of books the local bookstore would be likely to take in exchange for the one with my name in it. I looked for change under the couch and in the bottom of my bags to buy plain, ordinary coffee when I went out to meet friends, and ate oatmeal before I left home.

I planned ahead for busy days, making a huge pot of beef vegetable soup and lots and lots of mashed potatoes (my CSA has me overflowing with potatoes, cabbage and carrots!). I was so proud of myself.

The thing is: This is only the smallest, most beginning step toward meeting my financial goals.

Spending time on practicing my financial philosophies instead of recording them or analyzing them or even searching for great tips and tricks on Pinterest that fit “frugality” or whatever I want to call my philosophy was great. And I think it gets to something we often forget as personal finance writers: the psychology of money is far more important than the math.

If you want to be smarter about money, you don’t necessarily have to be smarter. You don’t ever have to learn how to do one of those “sumif” functions in your spreadsheet software (though they’re totally fun); you don’t have to be able to tell me what percentage of your “vice” budget was spent on coffee, and what was spent on chocolate. You have to be able to behave the right way (right = most sensible to reach your financial goals).

Any journey in personal finance is a journey in behavioral psychology.

I’m always amazed when I listen to the personal finance shows on the radio and hear variations on the same question. Either the caller is doing fantastically well, making far more income than she is spending, and wants to know whether (for instance) to spend more money paying off a debt or saving for retirement. Or the caller is in some variation of a dire situation brought on by bad habits. I relate to the dire situation and think, “Oh! I’ll do so much better! Because I understand the behavioral psychology behind this!” and then… I try.

I am a classic do-first, think-after person. Lots of time it works out brilliantly — it’s the perfect sort of trait for a creative overachiever, and I get a lot done! But it’s not the best approach to my finances, and I’m practicing like a yogi to do the numbers before I whip out the debit card.

What is your financial practice? Have you found charts and tracking sheets more useful than I have? Are you a scion of a noble line of disciplined financial gurus? Or are you, too, in need of 9,000-some more prostrations before financial enlightenment is reached?

Now see the 9 steps one writer took to get her finances back on track > 

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Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/businessinsider/~3/lIZk0ph_SoY/financial-enlightenment-does-not-come-from-charts-2012-11

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Goldman Sachs Has Slashed The Number Of Partners (GS)

Goldman Sachs Trading

(Reuters) - Goldman Sachs Group Inc <GS.N> has cut the number of employees it lists as partners to help streamline expenses.

Goldman has reduced the number of partners to 407, down 31 from February, the bank said in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, without identifying the partners that had been dropped.

Becoming a Goldman partner is a coveted title on Wall Street because of its prestige and lucrative compensation. Fewer partners were named this year because of a broad decline in Goldman's staff levels.

Since the end of 2010, the investment bank has cut 3,100 employees from its payroll, shrinking its workforce by 9 percent.

From 2011, dozens of partners have left the investment bank, including some high-profile executives such as David Heller and Ed Eisler, two co-heads of Goldman's securities business.

In April, Chief Financial Officer David Viniar said 15 to 20 percent of Goldman partners typically leave the firm every two years.

Last month, Viniar said the bank has already finished most of a cost-saving program that aims to reduce annual expenses by $1.9 billion, by cutting staff and other non-compensation expenses.

Goldman has set aside $10.97 billion for compensation so far this year, a 10 percent increase from a year ago. That equates to $336,442 per employee, up 15 percent from $292,836 per worker during the first nine months of 2011.

Harvey Schwartz will take over from Viniar, the longest-serving CFO on Wall Street, at the end of January.

(Reporting by Sakthi Prasad and Lauren Tara LaCapra; Editing by Ryan Woo)

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Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/businessinsider/~3/zJCOjIXC8q4/goldman-sachs-has-fewer-partners-2012-11

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Consumerist Friday Flickr Finds

Here are five of the best photos that readers added to The Consumerist Flickr Pool this week, picked for usability in a Consumerist post or just plain neatness.

Our Flickr Pool is the place where Consumerist readers upload photos for possible use in future Consumerist posts. Just be a registered Flickr user, go here, and click “Join Group?” up … [More]

Source: http://consumerist.com/2012/11/02/consumerist-friday-flickr-finds-166/

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Ppi Refunds Available If You Were Being Mis-Offered

The examine doesn't transform whatever that a medical doctor would adhere to in conditions of prescribing. Relatively, the professionals advocate that medical professionals pay very near focus to indications reported and be more discriminating when recommending these medicines to their clients.

The latest scandal involving payment safety insurance (PPI) has rocked the British banking planet to its really root. With some of the largest banking institutions in Britain obtaining been incorporated in the scandal, it is complicated to know wherever a customer stands with them or what specifically submitting a assert will do to their bank account. This uncertainty has numerous victims of the scandal questioning, will my bank account be shut for reclaiming PPI?

ppi

The genuine scale of the difficulty is lastly coming to gentle as clients realise they have been paying for insurance that they didn't require or in some conditions did not even know about, and regulators catch up with the organisations accountable for the lousy income tactics that caused this to occur. In between 2010 and 2011 the Fiscal Ombudsman Assistance acquired over a million grievances, producing it their busiest 12 months ever. Over fifty percent of these complaints had been concerning mis-sold mis sold ppi.

When proven that the merchandise was mis-bought, people have to have to get a number of steps in purchase to assert again ppi. First of all, they should really generate to the seller outlining why they assume the coverage was mis-offered and inquire for a refund. In March 2010, the financial institutions and the FOS agreed to draw up a questionnaire that covers all details of the sale of the plan, which customers must full and send with their complaint. The lender may perhaps effectively refuse to pay out out at this early stage.

Estimates state that all over 70% of the United kingdom could have been mis-marketed a PPI plan at some stage, just before the regulators got concerned the apply experienced develop into entirely endemic to the field. PPI was noticed as a little something which could be bought as conventional with all forms of lending, demanding prospects to essentially decide out of it. Suggestions provided frequently made this hard to do, or was misleading about the protect PPI truly gives.

In addition - despite loads of proof from them - it is not unheard of for banking institutions to argue that the PPI policy the shopper agreed to was essentially absolutely lawful and justifiable, even when the client had no prospect to make use of it in the initial area.

It is believed that around 70% of individuals in the British isles might have been mis-offered PPI and are consequently eligible to reclaim, even though they may perhaps not be aware of it. Having said that, many individuals could truly feel hesitant to do so due to perceived time and effort and hard work it would require. Lots of people also truly feel that they will be billed must their assert be unsuccessful, that they would only get a partial refund, that they would not be qualified to reclaim if their account has been shut for a sizeable sum of time or that they would be entitled to absolutely nothing if the insurance policies plan itself was not defective.

When you do file your ppi promises, you will likely be denied to begin with. This is common, as soon as your grievance is denied you really ought to publish them an additional letter and let them know you will be sending your declare Monetary Ombudsman.

Now At Walmart: Gingerbread Oreos

Here’s one bit of early Christmas merchandise that we’re not going to complain about. For once. Hitting shelves now, only at Walmart, introducing… gingerbread-flavored Oreos.

We haven’t been able to get our hands on the cookies yet, but consensus around the Consumerist virtual “office” is that this is one Oreo novelty flavor that we would actually be interested in eating. … [More]

Source: http://consumerist.com/2012/11/02/now-at-walmart-gingerbread-oreos/

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Consumerist Friday Flickr Finds

Here are five of the best photos that readers added to The Consumerist Flickr Pool this week, picked for usability in a Consumerist post or just plain neatness.

Our Flickr Pool is the place where Consumerist readers upload photos for possible use in future Consumerist posts. Just be a registered Flickr user, go here, and click “Join Group?” up … [More]

Source: http://consumerist.com/2012/11/02/consumerist-friday-flickr-finds-166/

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