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Vatican City had a bit of an embarrassing situation on its hands come New Year’s Day, when tourists and pilgrims waited in long lines to see holy sites only to find out all electronic purchases had been suspended. That means no credit cards anywhere in the city state.
See, the bank that handles card payments for the Vatican was refused … [More]
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It was an interesting day in the markets.
It was a stereotypically "risk-on" day (stocks up, dollar down, etc.) until the Fed minutes came out.
The minutes revealed (apparently to the market's surprise) that several members of the FOMC were reluctant to keep Quantitative Easing far beyond the middle of the year.
It's debatable whether this counts as a "tightening" or not. After all, this doesn't change the Fed's 'Evans Rule' guidance, which indicates that easy money will be guaranteed at least until the economy hits a certain economic threshold, but any sign that the easing appetite is nearing its end is noteworthy, given the abnormality of the last few years.
So the risk-on-move reversed itself and became a very un-QE day. Stocks fell. The dollar shot up. Gold fell. Yields at the long end of the curve started to rise.
In light of this move, Citi's Steven Englander warns of a '1994'-like scenario.
Before the Minutes were released, there was little anticipation or discussion on payrolls. Now that the Minutes are out and have raised market fears that the fed will pull back from ease earlier than anticipated, investors are worried about a repeat of 1994, when a surprise Fed tightening after a long period of easy money (by standards of those days) devastated fixed income markets. Then 10yr Treasury yields rose 170bps over a two month period.
In that light, you have to respect bond market skittishness, whenever 10yr Treasury yields go up by 21bps over three business days. We are not convinced this is what the Fed intended to convey. With fiscal tightening taking 1%+ off US GDP growth in 2013 and mortgage spreads versus Treasuries wider than the Fed hoped for, monetary conditions may not be as easy relative to underlying domestic demand as the Fed intended.
However, you have to respect the market response. And if payrolls come anywhere near close to a 200k handle we will very likely see further a further equity and fixed income sell off.
In the chart you can see, the red line (10-year yields) exploded in 1994 after the blue line (the Fed Funds Rate) started to tick higher.

For what it's worth, in 1994 stocks gained, but it was the worst year among the heady boom years surrounding it.

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Albert Einstein was one of the greatest minds of all time. He profoundly changed the way we look at space and time. But else do we know about the great scientist?
Kara Kovalchik of Mental Floss takes a look back at Einstein's life, uncovering some lesser-known details about the German-born genius' life.
His first impression wasn't one of fame, no. Born in Ulm, Germany, on March 14, 1879, Albert was the first child of Pauline and Hermann Einstein. And to say the couple was less than impressed with their newborn son would be an understatement; they thought his head was grotesquely oversized.
His parents described Albert to the delivering physician as a "monstrosity". The doctor convinced them that all infant heads appeared larger than normal and that Albert's body would grow to become more proportionate to his cranium.
Of course, once that happened, his grandmother clucked over him and complained to his parents that the boy was "much too fat!"
Yes and no. The youngster didn't start to speak until he was two-years-old, but when he did chatter, he skipped all that "mama, dada" bunk and started off using full sentences.
In 1881, Albert's parents presented him with a new little sister, Maria (called "Maja" by family and friends). When two-year-old Albert saw her for the first time, he presumed that she was some sort of toy, and asked "Where does it have its small wheels?"
Despite his original skepticism, Maja and Albert soon became best friends.
Einstein's primary-school teachers reported that the child had a powerful and lingering distaste of authority. Coupled with his late-developing speech, some medical professionals have suggested this behavior as symptomatic of either autism or Asperger's Syndrome.
Throughout his childhood and adult life, however, Albert did not exhibit any other behavior that would have been typical of such a diagnosis.
He had no difficulty communicating with others, for example. He also demonstrated the emotional capacity to develop both close friendships and passionate relationships.
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For more than a year, the Federal Trade Commission has been looking into various business practices of Google — covering everything from online advertising to search results to wireless patents — that allegedly stifled competition and innovation. Today, the agency and the Internet giant announced an agreement that has Google changing some of the ways it operates.
Among the most … [More]
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Do you remember to bring your reusable tote bag to the grocery store for a ten-cent discount? Would you remember to bring an inexpensive reusable tumbler back to Starbucks for your daily coffee? Starbucks is hoping that some people do, offering the new cups and a discount in an effort to cut back on the total number of cups the … [More]
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MSRP: $86,300 - $93,000
Invoice: $79,395 - $85,560
Fuel Economy: 17 mpg City, 25 mpg Highway
By far, the BMW 750Li is the most expensive car to own, coming in at $1.80 per mile. Beyond scoring poorly on reliability, the car didn't do well with Consumer Reports reviewers either.
"Though laden with comfort, convenience and safety technology, the large 7 Series is no longer the crisp, sporty luxury liner it once was," the magazine wrote. The controls are frustrating and confusing to use, it lacked agility, and wasn't as cushy in the suspension.
"The long-wheelbase 750Li we tested didn?t shine at its limits," the magazine wrote.
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There has been a lot of talk about the death of the TV business over the past 10 years, including on this site.
(I myself, for example, have written several articles on this topic.)
And the TV business is indeed beginning to change in ways that will change the status quo for TV companies, especially networks.
But those changes are happening slowly.
And in the meantime, it's business as usual in the TV industry, which means coining money at a rate that is almost unfathomable to anyone who works in the print or digital-media or even radio businesses.
Case in point?
A cable TV network that no one watched, Al Gore's Current TV, just sold for $500 million.
Okay, it's an exaggeration to say that no one watched Current, although that's exactly what the network's best-known host, Eliot Spitzer, recently told the New York Times' Brian Stelter, but it's not an exaggeration to say that Current's ratings were lousy.
The ratings were so lousy, in fact, that the network was at risk of getting dropped by Time Warner Cable.
Nor was the programming that Current TV produces attractive to its new buyer, the Qatar-owned news organization Al Jazeera. According to Stelter, Al Jazeera plans to "shut Current" and replace it with another news network, Al Jazeera America.
So, why, exactly, did Al Jazeera pay $500 million for Current TV if no one watches Current and Al Jazeera plans to just shut the whole thing down?
Because Al Jazeera wanted access to America's TV viewers--specifically, the cable distribution contracts that enable Current to be watched in tens of millions of American households.
Even after Time Warner dumped Current instantly because of the sale, Current is available in about ~30 million American households.
That's more households than, say, another recent entrant into the US cable news business, BBC, which is available in 25 million houses.
So Al Jazeera's purchase of Current, in other words, was similar to buying a crappy airline for its airport landing rights (distribution) rather than its brand or customers or current business.
Of course, those cable distribution agreements will all come up for renewal at some point.
And there is already a knee-jerk reaction by some cable systems (including, it appears, Time Warner, which deprived New York of watching BI editor Joe Weisenthal last night) to carrying a network that is still associated with the airing of the anti-American rants of the mass-murderer Osama Bin Laden in the years after 9/11. So it would not be surprising to see other cable systems drop Al Jazeera over time, even if the company does manage to produce a cable news channel that Americans want to watch (there are already a lot of cable news channels, and Americans don't care much about international news, which is where Al Jazeera might have an edge).
Unlike most of America's other cable networks, Al Jazeera also can't "bundle" its new network with other networks that Americans want to watch--ESPN, for example--and force the cable systems to take it.
So, unless it was hallucinating (which, frankly, it may well be), Al Jazeera can't have been confident that it will successfully preserve, much less expand, this distribution without shelling out a good deal more money in distribution payments.
Which means that Al Jazeera may have just paid $500 million for, well, nothing.
And $500 million, it's worth noting, is a lot more than some once-proud newspaper companies are selling for these days. And it's a lot more than the most successful digital news organization, Huffington Post, sold for a couple of years ago ($300 million).
The proprietor of Current TV, meanwhile, former Vice President Al Gore, will reportedly walk away with a tidy $100 million, which is a boatload more than, say, the phenomenally successful digital news mogul Arianna Huffington walked away with.
So, to sum up:
A cable network that no one watches just sold for $500 million.
Let's hope we all die the way the TV industry is dying!
SEE ALSO:
* For Whom Does The Bell Toll? It Tolls For TV
* Don't Mean To Be Alarmist, But The TV Business May Be Starting To Collapse
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