Long-Term Forecasts Are Mostly Worthless

Big picture analysis usually consists of extending whatever is the current trend in a straight line into the future. But trends only last until conditions change. And when trends are problematic, people and forces are usually successful in soon changing the conditions and thus reversing the scary ?big-picture? trend.

Source: http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2012/11/15/long-term-forecasts-are-mostly-worthless/

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