Nomura On The Big Difference Between "Low Growth" And "No Growth"


Is the US headed for a recession, or just an ongoing stretch of really mediocre growth?

The question is significant according to a new note from Nomura's Ian Scott.

When you have periods of sub-2% growth (on average, over three years), equity returns drop off big-time.

chart

One problem with the exercise: There just aren't many that periods in history of negative returns, and negative extended bad growth.

Here's an interesting look at 3-year growth rates over the last 100+ years.

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Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/businessinsider/~3/A068_Ec1EWo/low-growth-vs-no-growth-2011-9

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